October 27, 2003

Double Defeat for Uribe as Colombia Turns Left

by Garry Leech

It appears that Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe suffered a double setback at the polls during this past weekend. On Saturday, the president failed to draw the 25 percent of the country's voters required to make many of the referendum's 15 points binding. Uribe had claimed that approving the referendum was essential in order to combat corruption and reform the nation's economy or else Colombia risked an Argentine-style economic collapse. The day after the referendum saw Colombians again returning to the polls to vote in local elections. One of the offices at stake was that of mayor of the nation's capital Bogotá, the country's second most important elected office. By electing former union leader and outspoken critic of Uribe's security and economic policies Luis Eduardo "Lucho" Garzon as Bogotá's new mayor, voters again dealt a blow to Uribe.

The referendum highlighted the inaccuracy of polling in Colombia, where Uribe has repeatedly received job approval ratings of close to 75 percent. But despite these high approval numbers, fewer than 25 percent of the nation's voters turned out in support of Uribe's referendum. As a result of the electorate's less than stellar backing of Uribe's policies, it is likely that members of Colombia's Congress will be less fearful of alienating the president in future. And if Uribe now insists on imposing some of the referendum's proposals through presidential decree, public and congressional support for the president will likely further erode.

Uribe's referendum hit its first stumbling block back in July when the Constitutional Court ruled that four of the 19 points were unconstitutional. Among those questions eliminated from the ballot was an attempt by Uribe to undermine the country's already limited democracy by allowing voters to approve or reject the referendum package as a whole. In other words, the court declared that Colombians had to vote on each point individually, providing each voter with greater decision-making power. The court also dismissed Uribe's attempt to extend the term of office for mayors, governors and town council members in order to avoid the inconvenience and cost of frequent elections.

According to the Uribe administration, it was essential that the referendum be approved in order for Colombia to meet fiscal goals established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in return for a $2.1 billion loan received in January 2003. The IMF has called for structural reforms that will cut the country's fiscal deficit to 2.5 percent of GDP next year, down from 2.8 percent this year. Uribe said that the passage of the referendum would allow the government to make more money available for repaying the country's foreign debt, which was essential if Colombia was to retain investor confidence.

The most important point on the referendum that addressed the issue of government spending cuts was Question 14, which called for a two-year freeze on public sector wages and pensions. According to Jose Cerritelli, a Bear Stearns debt strategist, "Ninety percent of the savings are derived from the assumption that question 14 will pass. If it doesn't pass, then from an economic point of view, the rest of the referendum is just symbolic."

But opponents urged abstention and issued posters in the run-up to the election stating: "Don't vote on the referendum. Let the rich pay for the fiscal squeeze." The opposition strategy called on voters against the referendum to abstain from voting so that the referendum would not achieve the 25 percent turnout required to make it binding. In effect, the election boiled down to those who supported Uribe's proposals going to the polls and those Colombians opposed to the president's agenda staying home.

Question 14 appears to be one of the 11 questions that failed to obtain the necessary 25 percent voter participation. Among the other questions that failed to draw enough voters to make them binding was one that called for reducing the number of seats in Congress from 268 to 218. The rejection of this proposal has temporarily thwarted Uribe's attempts to further limit Colombia's democracy and increase the power of the presidency. Among the four questions that still stand a chance of being approved—two percent of the votes still had to be counted when this article went to press—are proposals to make it easier to fire corrupt bureaucrats and bar convicted criminals from running for public office. This latter proposal would prevent paramilitary leaders Carlos Castaño and Salvatore Mancuso from becoming political candidates should they be convicted of crimes against humanity and only pay fines instead of going to jail under Uribe's amnesty proposal.

In Sunday's local elections, Uribe faced another setback when former union leader Luis Eduardo "Lucho" Garzon was elected mayor of Bogotá with 45 percent of the vote. Garzon's principal challenger Juan Lozano, who was politically-aligned with Uribe, received 40 percent of the vote. Garzon's victory is the first time a leftist has attained such a prominent office in Colombia, where leftist candidates have historically been routinely assassinated.

Bogota's mayor-elect has been an outspoken critic of Uribe's security policies, which have repeatedly targeted unionists and NGOs by labeling them as terrorists. Over the past year, Colombia's security forces have conducted numerous mass arrests of union leaders and human rights workers accusing them of maintaining links to terrorist groups, namely the country's leftist guerrillas. Garzon has also criticized the transformation of Bogotá's public spaces undertaken by the city's previous two center-right mayors, claiming that these policies have primarily benefited the middle and upper classes. While the mayor-elect admits that parts of Bogotá might now look like Versailles, he insists that the majority of bogotanos continue to live in conditions comparable to Calcutta. Garzon has proposed establishing a food bank for the poor in order to help address the needs of the increasing numbers of Bogotá residents living in poverty.

The elections this past weekend clearly illustrated that President Uribe is not as popular as opinion polls keep claiming. And while Minister of Defense Marta Lucía Ramírez lamented the referendum's defeat by declaring, "All Colombians have lost an opportunity to adopt structural reforms," the poll results clearly show that Colombians do not view IMF-imposed economic reforms as an "opportunity." Many Colombians have repeatedly protested against IMF policies and right-wing paramilitary death squads have assassinated scores of those willing to speak out against the neoliberal economic agenda. Following this weekend's election results, Uribe has to decide whether to listen to the people or display his authoritarian nature by imposing his unpopular policies on Colombia through presidential decrees. With the defeat of the referendum and the election of Garzon as mayor of Bogotá—a traditional stepping-stone to the presidency—Colombia appears to have taken a turn to the left.

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